Apparently I'm influential in with market research firms: I post an idle musing and the next day IDC rushes a report to press. I could get used to that. In all seriousness, though, the Worldwide 2006-2010 Digital Still Camera Forecast looks pretty interesting, or at least the highlights do. If I get a few minutes I may even try to dig up the full text.

According to analyst Christopher Chute, the DSC market is set to continue maturing. Short-term growth looks good--an estimated 111 million units 2008--but In the U.S. and Europe the market is already pretty saturated (a recent CEA report estimated 57% of U.S. homes have a digital camera). By 2010, 40% of sales will be in currently developing markets, and the current double and triple-digit growth numbers we've seen for the past few years will evaporate. Most disturbing for consumers, Chute predicts that the current trend of familiar names disappearing or restructuring will continue, and many vendors will exit the market, through merger, sale or simply leaving in the next 18 months. We'll see, I guess.